Reading the Play: Will Weber “Play On” in Music City?

July 20, 2012

TSN reported yesterday that Shea Weber has signed a 14-year, $110 million offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers.  The Nashville Predators, already jilted by Weber’s former defensive partner and newly minted Minnesota Wild Ryan Suter, have seven days to match the offer or accept draft picks in compensation for losing their captain.

Weber, who annually plays a forgotten Alydar to Zdeno Chara’s Affirmed in the NHL SuperSkills hardest shot competition, now gets his moment in the limelight: the contract vaults him to the top of the league’s best paid defensemen.  According to CapGeek, Weber’s annual cap hit with this offer sheet places him above elite defenders Suter, Brian Campbell, Drew Doughty, and his hardest-shot nemesis Chara.

For the Predators, Suter’s signing with the Wild has triggered a nightmarish domino effect that could cost them their top defensive pair and biggest stars.  Suter’s 13-year, $98 million contract with Minnesota not only “reset the market,” in the words of Weber’s agent, Jarrett Bousquet; it also reset the fate of Nashville’s roster.  In an interview with TSN Radio 1050 Toronto, Bousquet alluded to Suter’s departure as a key factor in Weber’s desire to leave: “When things changed in Nashville, we felt that everything was set back a year or two and it looked to be more of a rebuilding situation.”

Asked whether Weber hopes the Predators decline to match the offer, Bousquet hesitated only briefly before stating plainly: “To answer your question, … he’d like to play with the Philadelphia Flyers.  He doesn’t want to go through a rebuilding process again.”

If Bousquet is correct and the Predators captain wants to play elsewhere, signing a multiyear offer sheet is a risky move; if the Predators choose to match the offer, Weber would be effectively locked into the “rebuilding situation” in Nashville for the remainder of his career.  Pressed about the potential for “hard feelings” if Nashville were to retain Weber’s services, Bousquet expressed little enthusiasm for the prospect but downplayed the possibility of lingering conflict: “I don’t foresee there being a problem in that regard.”

Predators president and general manager David Poile — who earlier in the month lamented, “We did not get a chance to make a counter-offer or anything like that” with Suter — reiterated his intention to “match and retain Shea” but noted it would take time to evaluate “the complexity of the offer sheet” — an implied reference to the front-loaded structure of the contract, which according to USA Today pays $28 million in the first 11 months.

Bousquet’s comments suggest Weber, if he does want to play in Philadelphia, is betting the Predators won’t be able or willing to come up with the money.  While praising the team as “a great organization,” Bousquet added, “They’re under different constraints than other organizations are.”

Should the Predators fail to retain Weber only weeks after losing Suter to unrestricted free agency, the loss would usher in dark times for a franchise that has achieved consistent success despite playing in a small expansion market where hockey is overshadowed by country music.  The Nashville Predators — according to the Nashville Predators — have earned a “reputation as one of the most stable, well-built teams in the NHL.”  Sporting News concurs, saying the team is

an organization that has been a hallmark of small-market stability, with only one general manager and one head coach — Barry Trotz — since its inception in 1998.  The Predators have been to the playoffs seven of the last eight seasons, advancing to the Western Conference semifinals each of the past two years.

While Poile in the front office has steered the franchise on a steady course, Trotz has managed the bench with the shrewdness of the James Bond villain he resembles.

Two masterminds, with and without a cat

Defying expectations for a roster that boasts few marquee names with a payroll currently “more than $13 million below the salary floor,” the Predators have proven themselves a likable, feisty team succeeding not with flashy talent but through character and work.  This postseason they eliminated perennial powerhouse Detroit, avenging two previous playoff series losses to the Red Wings.

But for a team that has always been short on elite talent, sustaining success will be a challenge without the two stars that have headlined their blue line.  Aside from Weber, Suter, and the towering (6’5″), top-tier (league-leading 43 wins), underrated goalie Pekka Rinne, the most high-profile Predator is Mike Fisher, probably better known in Music City as country singer Carrie Underwood’s husband.  Fisher, a forward, tallied only two more points (51) than defenseman Weber (49) during the 2011-2012 regular season; Suter contributed another 46 points.  Weber led the team in plus-minus at +21; Suter was next at +15.  No wonder Sporting News predicted that “[i]f Nashville lets Weber go after losing Suter, it will take years to recover.”

Now that Suter’s gone and captain Weber has one skate out the door, the future of the Nashville Predators rests solely on the thin shoulders of Pekka Rinne.  His net could feel very lonely next season.

For Rinne, here are a few words of encouragement from Predators wife Underwood, taken from the title song of her third album:

Don’t you ever give up the fight
Even when you feel you’re all alone

Play on, play on